← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 34% | 34% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Diego Alves · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 21' | 🟨 | Juanmi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 28' | 🟨 | Guilherme Siqueira · Valencia CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 43' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 47' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Nani · Valencia CF |
| 72' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 146.00 |
| 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1541.29 | 1592.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.30 | 0.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 40.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.18 | — |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |