← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 65% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.65 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 14% | 20% | 6.99 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | David Timor · Leganes |
| 55' | ⚽ | Luciano · Leganes |
| 58' | ⚽ | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Luciano · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1425.00 |
| 1027.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1434.53 | 1504.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.42 | -19.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |