← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 70% | 75% | 1.40 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.62 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 13% | 12% | 7.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 14' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Florin Andone · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 44' | ⚽ | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alejandro Arribas · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 68' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 77' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | ⚽ | Joselu · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 87' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emre Çolak · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joselu · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| coach days |
| 84.00 |
| 481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1463.15 | 1885.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.82 | -9.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 2.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.81 |
| state index | -0.47 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |