← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 94% | 90% | 1.05 | fair |
| Draw | 4% | 5% | 22.50 | value: +11% |
| CA Osasuna win | 2% | 5% | 47.00 | value: +114% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 30' | ⚽ | André Gomes · FC Barcelona |
| 48' | ⚽ | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 57' | ⚽ | André Gomes · FC Barcelona |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 64' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Javier Mascherano · FC Barcelona |
| 86' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 3 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 1030.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1984.61 | 1443.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.70 | 22.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.80 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.55 |
| league points | 75.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 25.93 |
| state index | 1.65 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |