← Primera Division 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.84 | fair |
| Granada win | 24% | 28% | 4.04 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Sverrir Ingi Ingason · Granada |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mehdi Carcela-González · Granada |
| 47' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Adrian Ramos · Granada |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Granada |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aly Mallé · Granada |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1383.06 | 1506.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.87 | 31.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.38 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |