← Primera Division 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 68% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.49 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 10% | 10% | 9.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | 🟨 | Gabi · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 58' | 🟨 | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Antonio Rukavina · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | ⚽ | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mateo Musacchio · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Godín · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 1972.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1795.71 | 1639.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.18 | -3.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 68.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.18 | — |
| state index | 1.31 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |