← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 50% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
| FC Barcelona win | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 28' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 77' | 🟥 | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 16 |
| 14 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 478.00 |
| 1027.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1898.05 | 1866.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.37 | -12.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 2.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 75.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | 1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.80 |
| squad age | 26.63 | — |
| state index | 1.41 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |