← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 47% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 25% | 27% | 3.88 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Las Palmas |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kevin-Prince Boateng · Las Palmas |
| 56' | 🟨 | Deyverson · Deportivo Alavés |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ibai Gómez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 73' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 77' | 🟨 | David García · Las Palmas |
| 86' | 🟥 | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ángel Montoro · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1024.00 | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1505.99 | 1518.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.32 | -3.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| league points | 38.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.34 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |