← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 55% | 63% | 1.79 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 17% | 16% | 5.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| coach days | 325.00 | 1969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1563.99 | 1790.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.67 | 25.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 49.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.18 |
| state index | 0.27 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |