← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 84% | 78% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 16% | 9.33 | value: +53% |
| Granada win | 5% | 6% | 18.15 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ganso · Sevilla FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Granada |
| 46' | ⚽ | Ganso · Sevilla FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sergi Samper · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 324.00 |
| 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1659.79 | 1386.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.39 | -34.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 62.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |