← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 40% | 35% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 30% | 36% | 3.27 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Ibai Gómez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mateo Musacchio · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gaizka Toquero · Deportivo Alavés |
| 66' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 69' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 320.00 | 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1607.81 | 1748.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.93 | 3.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.50 | 28.03 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |