← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 44% | 47% | 2.24 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 25% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Javi Fuego · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Léo Baptistão · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1415.00 |
| 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1446.84 | 1555.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.48 | 12.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 27.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |