← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 38% | 34% | 2.59 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 35% | 38% | 2.81 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Jozabed Sánchez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sverrir Ingi Ingason · Granada |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Granada |
| 41' | 🟨 | Artem Kravets · Granada |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marcelo Díaz · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 59' | 🟨 | Álvaro Lemos · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 73' | ⚽ | Marcelo Díaz · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Claudio Beauvue · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gastón Silva · Granada |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days |
| 15.00 |
| 1020.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1397.36 | 1605.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.60 | -5.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |