← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 36% | 32% | 2.69 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 33% | 40% | 3.00 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jonas Martin · Real Betis Balompié |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jonas Martin · Real Betis Balompié |
| 23' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Real Betis Balompié |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 65' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Eibar |
| 69' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · Real Betis Balompié |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 80' | 🟨 | Rubén Pardo · Real Betis Balompié |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
| 89' | ⚽ | Dani Ceballos · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 166.00 |
| 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1452.36 | 1583.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.47 | 40.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| league points | 31.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |