← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 79% | 78% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.37 | value: +11% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 7% | 7% | 13.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Carlos Vela · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 17' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 37' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 42' | ⚽ (og) | Samuel Umtiti · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 44' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Xabi Prieto · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 49' | 🟨 | Asier Illarramendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1019.00 | 531.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1969.51 | 1693.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.23 | -31.67 |
| eye test v1 | 1.77 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 69.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.25 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 25.83 |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |