← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 81% | 89% | 1.22 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 14% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 5% | 3% | 18.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| coach days |
| 1962.00 |
| 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1788.07 | 1369.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.92 | 18.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| league points | 62.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 23.18 | — |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |