← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 71% | 60% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 26% | 5.43 | value: +39% |
| Las Palmas win | 11% | 14% | 9.18 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 9' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 12' | ⚽ | Pedro Bigas · Las Palmas |
| 18' | ⚽ | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 58' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 59' | ⚽ | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 1413.00 | 1015.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1713.92 | 1617.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.83 | -1.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 50.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.95 | 26.58 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |