← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 45% | 42% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 26% | 32% | 3.80 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 16' | ⚽ | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 24' | 🟨 | Fausto Tienza · CA Osasuna |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tito · Leganes |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 60' | 🟨 | Miguel Olavide · CA Osasuna |
| 64' | 🟨 | Goran Čaušić · CA Osasuna |
| 71' | ⚽ | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 89' | 🟨 | Erik Morán · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.66 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 98.00 | 1408.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1433.21 | 1545.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.34 | 17.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| league points | 14.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 27.49 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |