← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 39% | 42% | 2.54 | value: +6% |
| Eibar win | 33% | 29% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 18' | 🟨 | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 51' | ⚽ | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jozabed Sánchez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 1013.00 |
| 648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1616.77 | 1563.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.91 | 14.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 41.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |