← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 56% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.86 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 19% | 19% | 5.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 463.00 | 1955.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1901.10 | 1783.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.61 | 27.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 71.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 23.18 |
| state index | 1.64 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |