← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 73% | 75% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.11 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 11% | 9% | 9.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 27' | 🟨 | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 32' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 37' | 🟨 | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 65' | 🟥 | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 69' | 🟨 | Adalberto Peñaranda · Málaga CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Javier Mascherano · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jony · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 26 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 38.00 | 1012.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.78 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1479.05 | 1890.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.53 | -2.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 2.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.84 |
| league points | 30.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 2.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.20 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |