← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 42% | 37% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 27% | 32% | 3.62 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club |
| 22' | 🟨 | Beñat Etxebarria · Athletic Club |
| 25' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 58' | ⚽ | Adrián López · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | 🟥 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gorka Iraizoz · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrés Fernández · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 249.00 | 1406.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 4.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1636.23 | 1627.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.18 | 34.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 51.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |