← Primera Division 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 58% | 52% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.35 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 19% | 26% | 5.10 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
| 14' | ⚽ | Bebé · Eibar |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Aythami Artiles · Eibar |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hélder Lopes · Las Palmas |
| 61' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Eibar |
| 62' | ⚽ | Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas |
| 64' | 🟨 | David Simón · Las Palmas |
| 65' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Las Palmas |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián González · Eibar |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesé Rodríguez · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 645.00 | 1007.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1552.62 | 1514.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 2.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |