← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 63% | 72% | 1.56 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.20 | fair |
| Leganes win | 14% | 9% | 7.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 18' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 23' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 32' | ⚽ | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 34' | ⚽ | Luciano · Leganes |
| 48' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 85' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1404.00 | 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1461.05 | 1898.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.54 | 5.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.22 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |