← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 64% | 63% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.51 | fair |
| Granada win | 14% | 15% | 7.04 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Héctor Hernández · Granada |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · Granada |
| 76' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ola John · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Cuenca · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 63.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1462.60 | 1405.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.63 | -15.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.23 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |