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RC Deportivo La Coruña 0–0 Granada

← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
RC Deportivo La Coruña win64%63%1.52fair
Draw22%22%4.51fair
Granada win14%15%7.04value: +8%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Héctor Hernández · Granada
75'🟨Pervis Estupiñán · Granada
76'🟨Andreas Pereira · Granada
90'🟨Ola John · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Isaac Cuenca · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots10
3On target2
6Corners3
14Fouls10
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.600.45
cards avg (last 5)3.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
3.60
coach days63.004.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.731.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.34
elo1462.601405.97
elo momentum (last 5)6.63-15.97
eye test v10.25-0.57
eye trend v10.44-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)60.0057.40
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.600.69
league points27.0019.00
league rank15.0019.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.008.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6069.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0042.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg0.930.66
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-7.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.609.00
skill v1-0.11-1.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.407.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.20
state index-0.23-1.06
sterile dominance v1-0.59-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.300.16
threat rate (last 5)0.290.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00