← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 81% | 70% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 24% | 8.35 | value: +103% |
| Sevilla FC win | 7% | 6% | 13.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 25' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 28' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 38' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Sevilla FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 1009.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1885.21 | 1661.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.89 | -20.03 |
| eye test v1 | 2.15 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| league points | 66.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 15.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.17 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 1.82 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |