← Primera Division 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 64% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.23 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 13% | 15% | 7.49 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 18' | 🟨 | Víctor Álvarez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 27' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 37' | 🟨 | David López · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 37' | ⚽ | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javi Fuego · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 1403.00 |
| 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.69 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1617.24 | 1558.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.13 | 9.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 47.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |