← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 51% | 42% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.87 | value: +10% |
| Las Palmas win | 24% | 29% | 4.13 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Rossi · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 17' | 🟨 | Pedro Bigas · Las Palmas |
| 24' | 🟨 | Facundo Roncaglia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 36' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Rossi · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jesé Rodríguez · Las Palmas |
| 57' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Rossi · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 80' | ⚽ | Pedro Bigas · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pape Cheikh · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 427.00 | 1004.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1704.02 | 1624.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.49 | 11.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| league points | 38.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 16.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 26.89 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |