← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 52% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.68 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 21% | 20% | 4.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
| 10' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 16' | 🟨 | Joselu · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Raúl Albentosa · Valencia CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Aymen Abdennour · Valencia CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | João Cancelo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1519.99 | 1474.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.69 | 25.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| league points | 30.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.09 | — |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |