← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 86% | 85% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9.99 | value: +7% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 4% | 5% | 21.99 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés |
| 31' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 88' | ⚽ | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 457.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1895.20 | 1532.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.03 | 22.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 65.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.90 | — |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |