← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 81% | 73% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 16% | 7.95 | value: +27% |
| Granada win | 6% | 11% | 15.40 | value: +68% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 44' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jérémie Boga · Granada |
| 59' | 🟨 | David Lombán · Granada |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 64' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 79' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
| 82' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
| 82' | 🟥 | Uche Agbo · Granada |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 26 |
| 5 | On target | 13 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days | 1.00 | 1006.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1408.94 | 1882.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.47 | -0.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 1.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 2.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.86 |
| league points | 19.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 2.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| state index | -0.67 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |