← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 50% | 53% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Eibar win | 22% | 23% | 4.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Daniele Bonera · Villarreal CF |
| 18' | ⚽ | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · Villarreal CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Antonio Luna · Eibar |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 58' | 🟨 | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
| 66' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
| 77' | ⚽ | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
| 89' | ⚽ | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 243.00 |
| 640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1643.37 | 1538.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.81 | 6.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |