← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 59% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.19 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 18% | 23% | 5.50 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 22' | 🟨 | Oriol Riera · CA Osasuna |
| 34' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 36' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 44' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 60' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 79' | ⚽ | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 81' | 🟨 | Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna |
| 84' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 90.00 | 1400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 4.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1346.95 | 1612.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.28 | 19.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| league points | 11.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.39 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.96 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |