← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 54% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.64 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 19% | 16% | 5.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Lucas Hernández · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 26' | ⚽ | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 31' | 🟨 | Stefan Savić · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 74' | ⚽ | Filipe Luís · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 76' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 31.00 | 1948.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.53 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1474.29 | 1773.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.75 | 3.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.18 |
| state index | -0.93 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |