← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 38% | 40% | 2.58 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tito · Leganes |
| 34' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Erik Morán · Leganes |
| 59' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Málaga CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1387.00 |
| 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1457.21 | 1473.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.15 | -34.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |