← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 38% | 47% | 2.59 | value: +21% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 32% | 25% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| coach days |
| 46.00 |
| 992.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1483.04 | 1611.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.79 | 4.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |