← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 86% | 85% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 9% | 11.08 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 5% | 6% | 18.92 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Enzo Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 29' | ⚽ | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 44' | 🟥 | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Valencia CF |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Andrés Iniesta · FC Barcelona |
| 77' | 🟨 | André Gomes · FC Barcelona |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | ⚽ | André Gomes · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 992.00 |
| 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1879.75 | 1522.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.83 | 4.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| league points | 60.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.25 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.95 |
| state index | 1.57 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |