← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 61% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.28 | value: +7% |
| Sevilla FC win | 16% | 18% | 6.17 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 1935.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1869.63 | 1782.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.62 | 9.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.79 |
| league points | 52.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.33 | 26.30 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |