← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 67% | 65% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.78 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 12% | 17% | 8.01 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Rafa Navarro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 8' | 🟨 | Kenan Kodro · CA Osasuna |
| 28' | ⚽ | Rubén Castro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 60' | 🟨 | Aitor Buñuel · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1470.63 | 1354.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.84 | -26.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| league points | 28.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.60 | -2.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |