← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 61% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.45 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 17% | 23% | 5.83 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 28' | 🟨 | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 28' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 65' | ⚽ | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 68' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keylor Navas · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 1 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1386.00 | 442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.69 | 4.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1617.08 | 1890.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.95 | -13.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.63 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |