← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 50% | 45% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 25% | 30% | 3.99 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Juan Rafael Fuentes · CA Osasuna |
| 48' | 🟨 | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kenan Kodro · CA Osasuna |
| 81' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jaime Romero · CA Osasuna |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 89' | 🟨 | Raoul Loé · CA Osasuna |
| 89' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 71.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1351.33 | 1543.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.23 | 14.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| league points | 10.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -2.09 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |