← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 77% | 78% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.42 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 8% | 10% | 12.49 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Fernando Navarro · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joselu · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 40' | ⚽ | Joselu · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 46' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 74' | ⚽ | Álex Bergantiños · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 39.00 | 985.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1465.13 | 1897.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.25 | 22.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 2.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.88 |
| league points | 24.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| state index | -0.39 | 1.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |