← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 50% | 49% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 20% | 23% | 4.86 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Zouhair Feddal · Deportivo Alavés |
| 56' | 🟨 | Zouhair Feddal · Deportivo Alavés |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 71' | ⚽ | Juankar · Málaga CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Zouhair Feddal · Deportivo Alavés |
| 72' | 🟥 | Zouhair Feddal · Deportivo Alavés |
| 76' | 🟨 | Martín Demichelis · Málaga CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Deyverson · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edgar Méndez · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 10.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.55 | 1.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1483.97 | 1511.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.70 | 6.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |