← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 44% | 52% | 2.24 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.21 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 26% | 24% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 35.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1466.75 | 1470.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.59 | -21.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |