← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 67% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 13% | 14% | 7.77 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jesé Rodríguez · Las Palmas |
| 11' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 18' | 🟨 | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
| 19' | 🟨 | Kevin-Prince Boateng · Las Palmas |
| 22' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Las Palmas |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kenan Kodro · CA Osasuna |
| 37' | ⚽ | Kenan Kodro · CA Osasuna |
| 43' | 🟨 | Dani Castellano · Las Palmas |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marko Livaja · Las Palmas |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kenan Kodro · CA Osasuna |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Unai García · Las Palmas |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna |
| 76' | ⚽ | Roque Mesa · Las Palmas |
| 82' | 🟨 | Raoul Loé · CA Osasuna |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jesé Rodríguez · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 975.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1510.96 | 1359.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.01 | -27.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| league points | 29.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.49 | -1.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |