← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 67% | 67% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.77 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 12% | 12% | 7.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1921.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1755.40 | 1532.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.07 | 33.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| league points | 46.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.18 | 24.95 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |