← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 56% | 47% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.92 | value: +7% |
| Málaga CF win | 19% | 26% | 5.28 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Beñat Etxebarria · Athletic Club |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Keko · Málaga CF |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 74' | 🟨 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enric Saborit · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 1373.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.77 | 4.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1592.98 | 1489.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.32 | -23.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 38.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |