← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 53% | 45% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
| Granada win | 19% | 27% | 5.15 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Mehdi Carcela-González · Granada |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Granada |
| 82' | 🟨 | Erik Morán · Leganes |
| 83' | ⚽ | Darwin Machís · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 1 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1372.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1442.29 | 1433.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.44 | 24.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |