← Primera Division 2016-17 · Thu, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 56% | 60% | 1.76 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 19% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 1918.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1449.78 | 1761.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.36 | -0.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 19.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.18 |
| state index | -1.00 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |