← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 46% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 25% | 27% | 3.90 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · CA Osasuna |
| 26' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Villarreal CF |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Soldado · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Antonio Rukavina · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 72' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | ⚽ | Rafael Borré · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sergio León · CA Osasuna |
| 78' | ⚽ | Rafael Borré · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 59.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1367.73 | 1627.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.16 | 6.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.42 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.75 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.68 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |